New Seat Details - Leicester West

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Leicester West been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Party	Implied 2017 Votes	Implied 2017 Share
LAB	27,340	58.1%
CON	16,010	34.0%
UKIP	1,675	3.6%
LIB	1,095	2.3%
Green	790	1.7%
OTH	120	0.3%
LAB Majority	11,330	24.1%

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

Leicester West: Map

List of old seats forming part of Leicester West

Old seat: Leicester West

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Leicester West, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Leicester West				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Leicester	Abbey	11,923	Leicester West	2,208	3,900	135	251	94	0	0	15	6,603
Leicester	Beaumont Leys	11,412	Leicester West	2,132	3,913	134	229	87	0	0	14	6,509
Leicester	Braunstone Park and Rowley Fields	12,260	Leicester West	2,099	4,682	172	279	122	0	0	19	7,373
Leicester	Fosse	7,366	Leicester West	1,449	3,115	48	197	87	0	0	22	4,918
Leicester	Westcotes	6,724	Leicester West	1,622	2,836	121	156	97	0	0	28	4,860
Leicester	Western	13,108	Leicester West	2,253	4,378	182	294	120	0	0	22	7,249
	Total	62,793		11,763	22,824	792	1,406	607	0	0	120	37,512

The full details of these calculations are given on the Leicester West seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Leicestershire South

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Leicestershire South, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Leicestershire South				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Blaby	Blaby South	3,672	Leicestershire South	1,513	721	289	84	59	0	0	0	2,666
Blaby	Cosby with South Whetstone	3,720	Leicestershire South	1,690	792	73	71	52	0	0	0	2,678
Blaby	Countesthorpe	5,933	Leicestershire South	2,486	740	343	103	73	0	0	0	3,745
Blaby	Croft Hill	1,733	Leicestershire South	846	286	27	32	23	0	0	0	1,214
Blaby	Enderby and St John's	3,574	Leicestershire South	1,450	832	88	219	58	0	0	0	2,647
Blaby	Millfield	1,915	Leicester West	648	676	48	42	29	0	0	0	1,443
Blaby	Narborough and Littlethorpe	3,945	Leicestershire South	2,011	731	110	79	64	0	0	0	2,995
Blaby	Normanton	2,030	Leicestershire South	926	391	38	38	27	0	0	0	1,420
Blaby	North Whetstone	3,817	Leicestershire South	1,846	894	102	83	61	0	0	0	2,986
Blaby	Pastures	3,755	Leicestershire South	1,840	620	91	73	52	0	0	0	2,676
Blaby	Ravenhurst and Fosse	5,142	Leicester West	1,749	2,000	133	121	79	0	0	0	4,082
Blaby	Saxondale	5,494	Leicestershire South	2,257	1,077	470	402	96	0	0	0	4,302
Blaby	Stanton and Flamville	6,021	Leicestershire South	3,117	819	98	114	72	0	0	0	4,220
Blaby	Winstanley	4,893	Leicester West	1,850	1,840	122	106	75	0	0	0	3,993
Harborough	Broughton Astley-Astley	1,546	Leicestershire South	950	260	37	36	23	0	0	0	1,306
Harborough	Broughton Astley-Broughton	2,051	Leicestershire South	1,155	381	38	43	27	0	0	0	1,644
Harborough	Broughton Astley-Primethorpe	1,299	Leicestershire South	639	262	30	27	19	0	0	0	977
Harborough	Broughton Astley-Sutton	1,448	Leicestershire South	764	289	30	32	21	0	0	0	1,136
Harborough	Dunton	1,688	Leicestershire South	937	212	20	30	20	0	0	0	1,219
Harborough	Lutterworth Brookfield	1,811	Daventry and Lutterworth	881	328	37	34	23	0	0	0	1,303
Harborough	Lutterworth Orchard	1,622	Daventry and Lutterworth	767	350	34	101	24	0	0	0	1,276
Harborough	Lutterworth Springs	1,642	Daventry and Lutterworth	737	393	38	98	25	0	0	0	1,291
Harborough	Lutterworth Swift	1,792	Daventry and Lutterworth	852	459	32	38	24	0	0	0	1,405
Harborough	Misterton	1,955	Daventry and Lutterworth	1,054	307	30	35	25	0	0	0	1,451
Harborough	Peatling	1,826	Leicestershire South	933	259	23	96	22	0	0	0	1,333
Harborough	Ullesthorpe	1,602	Leicestershire South	901	245	23	96	21	0	0	0	1,286
	Total	75,926		34,799	16,164	2,404	2,233	1,094	0	0	0	56,694

The full details of these calculations are given on the Leicestershire South seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Leicester West

District	Ward	Electorate 2017	Old Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
New seat: Leicester West
Blaby	Millfield	2,007	Leicestershire South	648	676	48	42	29	0	0	0	1,443
Blaby	Ravenhurst and Fosse	5,679	Leicestershire South	1,749	2,000	133	121	79	0	0	0	4,082
Blaby	Winstanley	5,558	Leicestershire South	1,850	1,840	122	106	75	0	0	0	3,993
Leicester	Abbey	11,413	Leicester West	2,208	3,900	135	251	94	0	0	15	6,603
Leicester	Beaumont Leys	11,251	Leicester West	2,132	3,913	134	229	87	0	0	14	6,509
Leicester	Braunstone Park and Rowley Fields	12,746	Leicester West	2,099	4,682	172	279	122	0	0	19	7,373
Leicester	Fosse	8,499	Leicester West	1,449	3,115	48	197	87	0	0	22	4,918
Leicester	Westcotes	8,397	Leicester West	1,622	2,836	121	156	97	0	0	28	4,860
Leicester	Western	12,528	Leicester West	2,253	4,378	182	294	120	0	0	22	7,249
	Total	78,078		16,010	27,340	1,095	1,675	790	0	0	120	47,030

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Leicester West. Please note that the wards used are those of 2015 in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.

Implied MP at 2017:	Liz Kendall (LAB)
County/Area:	Leicestershire (East Midlands)
Electorate:	78,078
Turnout:	60.2%

Leicester West: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Leicester West: Overview

Introduction